San Francisco vs Gonzaga Odds, Props & Prediction for WCC Tournament Semifinal

Feb 3, 2024; Spokane, Washington, USA; Gonzaga Bulldogs forward Graham Ike (13) is fouled by St. Mary’s Gaels center Mitchell Saxen (11) in the second half at McCarthey Athletic Center. Mandatory Credit: James Snook-USA TODAY SportsGonzaga and San Francisco meet in the semifinals of the 2024 WCC Tournament on Monday nightThe Zags took both meetings with the Dons during the regular seasonSee the Gonzaga vs San Francisco odds, player props, and predictions for March 11, 2024

The San Francisco Dons (23-9, 11-5 WCC, 2-0 neutral, 18-13 ATS) took care of business on Saturday night against Portland (72-51) to set up a third tilt with the #19 Gonzaga Bulldogs (24-6, 14-2 WCC, 3-1 neutral, 14-15 ATS) in the semifinals of the West Coast Conference Tournament at Orleans Arena in Las Vegas.

Tip-off is scheduled for 8:30 pm PT/11:30 pm ET and Gonzaga is listed as a big favorite.

Gonzaga vs San Francisco Odds

The Gonzaga vs San Francisco odds currently list the Zags as 8.5-point chalk and -425 betting favorites on the moneyline. The Dons come back at +340 to reach their first WCC Tournament final since 1998.

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Gonzaga, which has won four straight WCC Tournament titles and reached the final every edition since 1997, was listed as a #4 seed in the latest projected March Madness bracket. They are likely to rise a seed line if they’re able to win the WCC Tournament but would surely drop a line or two with a loss tonight.

Gonzaga Rides Eight-Game Win Streak into WCC Tournament

While the season as a hole hasn’t lived up to lofty Gonzaga standards, the Zags do enter the conference tournament as one of the hottest teams in the nation. Mark Few’s group finished the regular season on an eight-game win streak, including a dominant 70-57 win at Saint Mary’s in the final game of the season, the Gaels’ only conference setback.

Point guard Ryan Nembhard was sensational in the win, with 20 points on 9-of-15 shooting plus 10 assists, three rebounds, and two steals. Wyoming transfer Graham Ike, who led the Zags in both scoring and rebounding in the regular season (16.9 PPG, 7.3 APG), had a team-high 24 points.

Gonzaga also thumped the Dons in their second-last regular-season game, winning 86-68 at the Chase Center in San Francisco. A one-point game at the break (35-34 Gonzaga), the Bulldogs opened the second half on a 28-4 run with Ike once again scoring a game-high 26.

After starting the year rated fifth at KenPom, the Zags fell all the way to 29th after a loss to San Diego State on Dec. 29th, which dropped their win/loss record to just 9-4. But 15 wins in their final 17 games has lifted Gonzaga back to 15th at KenPom, which is actually seven spots higher than Saint Mary’s (22nd) and 55 better than San Francisco (70th).

San Francisco Breezes Past Portland

The Dons had a solid start to the season, opening the year 15-4 including a win over the Big Ten’s Minnesota Golden Gophers (76-58 home). But with all four of their games against Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s in the back half of their schedule, they only managed to go 7-5 down the stretch, including 0-4 against the WCC’s twin powers.

San Francisco entered the WCC Tournament on a two-game losing streak. After the blowout loss to Gonzaga at home, the Dons also fell 69-62 at Santa Clara.

Drawing Portland in the quarterfinals was a perfect recipe for ending the skid. San Francisco cruised to a 72-51 win over the Pilots, its third double-digit win over Portland this season. Leading scorer Jonathan Mogbo (14.5 PPG) had just nine points in the win but his eight rebounds helped the Dons finish +7 on the glass.

Marcus Williams (14.0 PPG) led the team with 16 points in the win.

Unlike during the Todd Golden era (which ended in 2022), when San Francisco played more of a run-and-gun style, Chris Gerlufsen’s Dons are a defense-first team. They currently sit 33rd in KenPom’s Defensive Efficiency rankings and play at the 183rd-fastest tempo in the country.

On offense, they live-and-die by the three. A staggering 49.2% of their shots from from beyond the arc (second-most out of all 362 DI teams) and they are connecting at a 36.4% clip (48th).

Gonzaga vs San Francisco Player Props

Player props as of March 11 at DraftKings. Click here to download the DraftKings app North Carolina.

The college basketball player props on Monday list Ike with a game-high point total of 20.5, nearly four points over his season average. None of the Dons are over 13.5.

Gonzaga vs San Francisco Prediction

The Zags were the #5 team in the preseason KenPom ratings because there is a ton of talent on this roster. With multiple transfers (to win, Ike and Nembhard) playing crucial roles, it took the team some time to coalesce. But coalesce they have, and now is an unenviable time to be facing the Bulldogs.

With Orleans Arena likely to be heavily biased towards the Zags, expect another result similar to the Feb. 29th game.

Gonzaga vs San Francisco picks: Gonzaga -8.5 (-115) – two units

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Sascha Paruk’s 2023-24 NCAAM betting record:

ATS: 16-18 (-3.48 units)Moneyline: 2-9 (-9.48 units)Over/Under: 0-1 (-1.00 units)Player props: 2-2 (+0.78 units)