Colorado State vs New Mexico Odds, Player Props, Prediction & Pick

Mar 3, 2023; Fort Collins, Colorado, USA; Colorado State Rams guard Isaiah Stevens (4) dribbles the ball up court against New Mexico Lobos guard Jaelen House (10) in the second half at Moby Arena. Mandatory Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY SportsColorado State and New Mexico meet in in a pivotal Mountain West game on Wednesday night in AlbuquerqueBoth teams a 1.5 games behind Utah State for the MW leadSee the Colorado State vs New Mexico odds, player props, and predictions on Feb. 21

Two of the top teams in a very strong Mountain West Conference meet on Wednesday night in Albuquerque as the #22 Colorado State Rams (20-5, 8-5 MW, 3-5 away, 14-10 ATS) visit the New Mexico Lobos (20-5, 8-5 MW, 11-2 home, 17-8 ATS) at The Pit at 8:00 pm MT/10:00 pm ET.

Despite suffering their first two home losses of the season in their last two home games, the Lobos are big favorites for Wednesday’s tilt with the Rams.

Colorado State vs New Mexico Odds

Wednesday’s college basketball odds list New Mexico as a seven-point home favorite and -358 on the moneyline. CSU comes back as a +260 underdog while the game total is at a relatively high 157.5.  New Mexico, which plays at a frenetic pace (sixth-fastest in Division I) is 14-11 O/U this season. The slower-paced Rams (274th in tempo) are 10-14 O/U.

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New Mexico has improved to +7500 in the latest March Madness odds, which is just outside the top-25 favorites.

Colorado State Struggling on the Road

The Rams have been night-and-day different in home/neutral-court games compared to true road games this season. CSU is 17-1 in the former and just 3-5 in the latter. Their only true road victories this season came against Northern Colorado (83-64), Loyola Marymount (76-67), and Fresno State (73-61). All three of those teams rate 188th or worse in efficiency at KenPom.

In their most-recent away game, they suffered a brutal second-half collapse against San Diego State. The Rams led 44-30 at halftime yet wound up on the wrong end of a 71-55 scoreline, managing just 11 points in the second half.

Four CSU players finished in double-ps but, as a team, the Rams shot just 39.3% from two and 32% from three, and they were massacred on the glass: the Aztecs pulled down 46 total rebounds, including 14 at the offensive end, while the Rams finished with just 24 total rebounds (four on offense).

The boards have been a problem for CSU all season. They are a horrendous 328th in the country in offensive-rebound percentage (23.6%) and just 119th on the defensive end. But they are usually much more prolific scoring the ball, especially in the paint. The Rams sit eighth in the nation in two-point percentage and have the 33rd-most-efficient offense as a result.

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New Mexico’s Perfect Home Record Comes Crashing Down

The Lobos started the year with 11 straight home wins, including an 88-70 thumping of San Diego State, last year’s national runner-up and the top-rated team in the Mountain West (18th at KenPom). But they suffered an 86-78 home loss to Boise State on Jan. 31 and followed up with an 80-77 setback to UNLV on Feb. 10, both as double-digit home favorites.

The Lobos were subpar at both ends of the court in those losses, scoring well under their average (83.3 PPG) while allowing significantly more than their average points against per game (71.0).

While the teams play much different styles, the efficiency metrics for the Rams and Lobos are very similar. CSU is 33rd on offense and 34th on defense, while UNM is 31st on offense and 30th on defense.

CSU vs UNM Player Props

College basketball player props from DraftKings.

Lobos leading scorer Jaelen House has the highest over/under point total on Wednesday at 16.5, slightly over his season average of 15.9 PPG. Isaiah Stevens, who averages a team-high 16.1 PPG for CSU, is listed at 15.5 O/U.

New Mexico freshman JT Toppin, the team’s leader on the glass, has the highest rebound total by a wide margin at 9.5, a full two rebounds higher than any other player on the board.

Colorado State vs New Mexico Prediction

Colorado State’s home/road splits are becoming a big concern, but it’s not like the Rams haven’t been competitive in true road games. Not only did they lead SDSU by 14 at halftime, they also held a four-point halftime lead at Utah State before losing 77-72 to the current Mountain West leaders in Logan. Three of their five road losses have come by seven or fewer points.

The Rams also controlled the first meeting of the season between these teams in Fort Collins, winning 76-68 while owning the glass (38-29), a hugely positive omen for CSU.

If Colorado State plays 40 minutes like it played the second half against the Aztecs, New Mexico will win in a rout. But expect a much better effort from the Rams, who need a win to stay in the MW title race and bolster their at-large resume for the NCAA Tournament.

CSU vs UNM pick: Colorado State +7 (-110)

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Sascha Paruk’s 2023-24 NCAAM betting record:

ATS: 16-13 (+1.52 units)Moneyline: 2-5 (-3.48 units)Over/Under: 0-1 (-1.00 units)Player props: 2-2 (+0.78 units)

All wagers one unit unless expressly stated otherwise.