Bucks vs Pacers Game 3 Prediction, Odds & Player Props

Apr 21, 2024; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA; Indiana Pacers forward Pascal Siakam (43) shoots the ball over Milwaukee Bucks center Brook Lopez (11) in the third quarter during game one of the first round for the 2024 NBA playoffs at Fiserv Forum. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY SportsThe Bucks and Pacers play Game 3 of their Round 1 series on Friday nightThe latest odds favor the Pacers by 6.5 points, with player props also availableRead below for Bucks vs Pacers Game 3 prediction, odds and player props

The Milwaukee Bucks travel to Indianapolis to take on the Indiana Pacers in a pivotal Game 3 matchup on Friday, April 26, at 5:30 PM ET on ESPN.  The Pacers stole home-court advantage with a 125-108 victory in Game 2 to even the series at 1-1.

Indiana enters as 6.5-point home favorites with the over/under set at 222 points. NBA player props favor

What’s the best bet for Friday’s game? Here’s our Bucks vs Pacers prediction, along with odds and player props.

Milwaukee Bucks vs Indiana Pacers Odds – Game 3

In the Bucks vs Pacers odds for Game 3, Indiana is the -250 favorite, giving them a 71.4% implied win probability.

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Odds as of April 26, 2024, at BetMGM Sportsbook. Check out the best NBA betting site for wagering on the playoffs.

Bucks Hoping for Giannis Return

The big story for Milwaukee is the status of superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo, who remains doubtful with a calf strain that has sidelined him for six straight games. The Bucks desperately need their two-time MVP back in the lineup to slow down Indiana’s Pascal Siakam, who is averaging a playoff-high 36.5 points through the first two games.

Without Giannis, the Bucks have struggled mightily to generate offense, failing to top 115 points in nine of their last ten games overall. Damian Lillard has done his part, pouring in 30+ points in both contests, but the supporting cast has been inconsistent.

As a team, Milwaukee is shooting just 39.1% from three and hasn’t been able to score efficiently at the rim like they did in the regular season when they ranked 2nd in that category.

Defensively, the Bucks have had no answer for the Pacers, surrendering 128.8 points per game in their matchups this year. In two trips to Indiana, Milwaukee allowed 126 and 142 points in a pair of losses. Overall, the Bucks are just 18-22 straight up and 16-24 against the spread on the road. They rank 19th in defensive rating and force the 2nd fewest turnovers in the league.

The potential absence of Khris Middleton, who is questionable with an ankle injury, would be another huge blow. Middleton gutted through the injury to post 15 points, six assists and five rebounds in 36 minutes in Game 2. His status, along with Giannis, is worth monitoring closely leading up to tip-off.

Pacers’ Offense Heating Up

After a sluggish Game 1 performance, the Pacers looked like the explosive unit that led the NBA in scoring during the regular season. Indiana shot 55.6% from the field and scored 52 points in the paint to cruise to a 17-point victory.

Pascal Siakam has been absolutely unstoppable, following up a 36-point, 13-rebound effort in the opener with 37 points, 11 boards and six assists in Game 2. He’s the first player since Wilt Chamberlain in 1967 to open the playoffs with back-to-back 35-point, 10-rebound games.

Myles Turner added 22 points, seven rebounds and three blocks as Indiana dominated the interior.

Pascal Siakam cookin vs. Bucks 👀

Game 1: 36 PTS. 13 REB, 15-25 FGGame 2: 37 PTS. 11 REB. 6 AST

Series tied up 1-1 😤 pic.twitter.com/9vIu39nYYg

— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) April 24, 2024

Interestingly, All-Star point guard Tyrese Haliburton has been quiet offensively, attempting just 17 shots and totaling 21 points through two games. However, he’s been content to facilitate and let his teammates eat. Indiana still boasts the league’s 3rd highest true shooting percentage and 6th lowest turnover rate, so there’s little concern about the offense going forward.

Defensively, the Pacers were able to hold Milwaukee under 110 points in both contests despite ranking just 24th in defensive rating during the regular season. They’ve done an excellent job of keeping the Bucks off the offensive glass and not sending them to the free-throw line at their usual high rate. If this level of play continues, Indiana will be in great shape.

The Pacers are an impressive 26-15 straight up and 22-17-2 against the spread at home this season. They’ve also gone over the total in 25 of 41 games at Gainbridge Fieldhouse. The crowd should be electric as Indiana looks to take a 2-1 series lead.

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Bucks vs Pacers Player Props

In the Bucks vs Pacers player props, Damian Lillard sports the highest point total over/under at 31.5. Pascal Siakam is next in line at 26.5, while also sporting the highest rebound total in the game (9.5).

Player	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Three-Pointers Made
Aaron Nesmith	11.5 (Ov -120 | Un +100)	4.5 (Ov -125 | Un +105)	2.5 (Ov -118 | Un -102)	1.5 (Ov -162 | Un +136)
Andrew Nembhard	9.5 (Ov -112 | Un -108)	2.5 (Ov -148 | Un +124)	3.5 (Ov +136 | Un -162)	1.5 (Ov +170 | Un -205)
Bobby Portis	17.5 (Ov -115 | Un -105)	11.5 (Ov +102 | Un -122)	OFF	0.5 (Ov -175 | Un +145)
Brook Lopez	13.5 (Ov +105 | Un -125)	5.5 (Ov +136 | Un -162)	OFF	1.5 (Ov -166 | Un +140)
Damian Lillard	31.5 (Ov -102 | Un -118)	4.5 (Ov -148 | Un +124)	6.5 (Ov +124 | Un -148)	4.5 (Ov +124 | Un -148)
Khris Middleton	18.5 (Ov -112 | Un -108)	6.5 (Ov +120 | Un -142)	5.5 (Ov -105 | Un -115)	1.5 (Ov -142 | Un +120)
Myles Turner	19.5 (Ov -102 | Un -118)	8.5 (Ov +110 | Un -130)	OFF	2.5 (Ov +136 | Un -162)
Obi Toppin	7.5 (Ov -118 | Un -102)	4.5 (Ov +102 | Un -122)	OFF	0.5 (Ov -205 | Un +170)
Pascal Siakam	26.5 (Ov -112 | Un -108)	9.5 (Ov -125 | Un +105)	3.5 (Ov -110 | Un -110)	1.5 (Ov +145 | Un -175)
Patrick Beverley	6.5 (Ov -115 | Un -105)	5.5 (Ov -112 | Un -108)	4.5 (Ov +124 | Un -148)	0.5 (Ov -148 | Un +124)
T.J. McConnell	7.5 (Ov -125 | Un +105)	2.5 (Ov -112 | Un -108)	3.5 (Ov -155 | Un +130)	0.5 (Ov +275 | Un -345)
Tyrese Haliburton	17.5 (Ov -102 | Un -118)	5.5 (Ov +120 | Un -142)	10.5 (Ov -142 | Un +120)	2.5 (Ov -115 | Un -105)

NBA player props odds as of Apr. 26 at DraftKings Sportsbook.

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In terms of the player prop market, I like Tyrese Haliburton under 17.5 points. He’s attempted just 17 shots in the series as Milwaukee’s Patrick Beverley has made life difficult.

I expect Haliburton to continue to focus on facilitating for his red-hot teammates rather than forcing his own offense. As long as Giannis sits, this game script sets up nicely for the under.

Bucks vs Pacers Game 3 Prediction

Given Milwaukee’s road woes, offensive struggles, and the likelihood of Giannis missing another game, I’m backing the Pacers -6.5. Indiana’s offense looked unstoppable in Game 2, and I expect that confidence to carry over on their home floor.

The Bucks just don’t have enough firepower to keep pace if Antetokounmpo and potentially Middleton are out or limited. Lay the points with Indiana in the Friday NBA odds.

I’m also leaning towards the over 222 points. These teams have combined for 230+ points in six of their seven meetings this season, including both games in Indiana, where the Pacers averaged 134 ppg. Milwaukee should still score 110+ even without their stars, plus the over is 25-16 in Pacers’ home games this year.

MIL vs IND Game 3 Pick:

Pacers -6.5 (-110)

 

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